Space Elevator by 2040? Enthusiasts keep the dream alive

By Dick Pelletier

      

    "Welcome to Space Elevator, Earth 2050. Our first stop will be the Bigelow Sky Hotel, 150 miles high, where some of you will enjoy a breathtaking vacation, while others take a Virgin shuttlecraft to the ISS. We will then continue on to the Geo Orbit, 22,300 miles high, where the rest of you will board a SpaceX shuttle to the Moon. For safety, this elevator is radiation-shielded and for convenience, we offer satellite TV and Wi-Fi. The GEO trip takes 7 days, so relax in your luxury suite and enjoy this journey to the stars."

    Although the above may seem like a sci-fi tale; and indeed, for the past 50 years that's how most people saw this audacious idea. The basic concept for the space elevator (SE) works like this: a rocket-launched cargo ship drops a ribbon made from carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to a Pacific Ocean platform.

    The ribbon extends to a station built in the geostationary area, 22,300 miles high, where satellites circle the Earth at the same speed the planet rotates, always appearing at the same spot in the sky. The cable then extends another 40,000 miles into space to a weighted structure for stability. An electricity-powered elevator car then scurries up the ribbon lifting loads of people and freight into space at 120 mph.

    The biggest barrier to this dream has been the inability to produce CNTs in sufficient quantities, which experts predict could be resolved in 10-to-20 years. CNTs are the only material found strong enough to stretch tens of thousands of miles into space and lift loads of freight and people, while avoiding dangers such as breakage caused by violent storms, collisions from space debris, meteorites, and radiation.

    Other issues to sort out include legalities. Who owns the SE? Is it a 'toll road' to space where everyone pays a fee to the country that built it; or should this project be supervised by a UN space committee?

    When Soviet engineer Yuri Artsutanov came up with his concept for an "electric train to the cosmos" in 1960, he thought that, it may take 200 years for it to happen. Fifty one years later, the 81-year-old is more optimistic. He now believes the space elevator could begin ferrying people and stuff to the stars by 2040.

    Artsutanov believes that similar smaller elevators could also be constructed on Moon and Mars, creating a kind of outer-space commuter rail system. Proponents say costs of hauling stuff into space will drop from $10,000 per pound today, to $400; and with additional elevators, competition could eventually lower prices to around $10 per pound. A 200-pound person could travel round-trip to space for $2,000.

    Space colonization has reached an impasse, and not just for lack of money for the Space Shuttle program. There is simply no way humans can travel easily offworld without using massive amounts of rocket fuel to escape Earth's gravity. This problem has kept the average person trapped on terra firma.

    At the recent 2011, Space Elevator Conference in Redmond, Washington, participants debated the timeline when an SE may be built. Some believe it could happen within the next 30 years; others saw a much longer time. Nearly everyone agreed though, that this ribbon to space would transform our world.

    Advocates predict that this miracle could be built for around $18 billion, and that economical space access will synergize other projects. Visionaries Richard Branson and Robert Bigelow hope to get private citizens in space for vacations and jobs, which could spark a multi-billion dollar space tourism industry.

    Experts believe that putting people, factories, and cities into orbit cheaply will have a profound effect on every aspect of human life. Colonies on Moon, Mars, and eventually artificial habitats orbiting Earth, will encourage people to seek riches and a better life in the high frontier.

    By 2080, more than 100 million humans could live offworld. By mid-22nd century, more people might be living in space than on Earth. And we will always keep in touch with these bold pioneers, because sharing their experiences of life in a strange new world will enrich us all.

    Will this wild dream ever be accomplished? Positive futurists believe that it certainly has a chance. In the 2040s, going into space could be as simple as stepping into an elevator and saying, "Geostationary orbit please." Get ready for what promises to be a most amazing and awe-inspiring future.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.