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Life in the 2010s: moving towards mid-century and beyond
By Dick Pelletier
This is the first piece in a 5-part series describing what
to expect as humanity moves towards mid-century and beyond. Each
article covers a specific time period: 1) 2010s, 2) 2020s, 3)
2030s, 4) 2040s, and 5) 2050 and beyond.
Convergence of accelerating technologies, Nanotech, Biotech,
Infotech, and Cognitive Sciences, represent the force that will
transform our crude world – from today's group of squabbling
nations, most occupied with solving issues between haves and
have-nots, but some resorting to terrorism to resolve religious
and cultural differences – into an affluent, peaceful global
village of tomorrow.
In the decades ahead, scientists predict we will replace oil
with renewable energy, gain control over the genetic processes
of life, create goods economically with nanotechnology, insure
that everyone on Earth enjoys a scarcity-free life, and build
permanent colonies in space.
So please join me on this virtual trip through time. We'll look
at breakthroughs to form a realistic glance at how life is
likely to evolve. Will these forecasts be accurate? I invite
readers to contact me at mid-century (should life extension
technologies enable our survival) with your evaluation.
The 2010s
Expect huge advances in healthcare and information systems
during this decade. With U.S. healthcare interest grabbing
worldwide attention, the 2010s will mark global transition from
reactive to proactive healthcare.
In Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever, authors Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman describe how changing defective
genes can cure diseases. Doctors extract a cell from a patient's
body, and using RNAi procedures; they remove bad genes and
insert good ones. The cell is then replicated a million-fold and
the gene-enhanced cells are injected back into the body. This
revolutionary proactive science can actually cure diseases, not
just treat them, the authors say.
Personal genomes priced under $1,000 by mid-decade will enable
doctors to identify genetic diseases we're predisposed to and
prevent them from ever harming us.
Regenerative medicine, with its ability to regrow organs and
tissues with stem cells, could be available and affordable by
2018. According to a recent government report, this technology
can restore youthful appearance and abilities to aging seniors
and 'boomers, and eliminate premature deaths from many diseases.
A faster Internet by 2015 will finally make e-commerce more
competitive with local "bricks and mortar" stores. An internet
sale, with its ability to custom-design products at point of
purchase, satisfies buyer needs far better than local stores
that mostly provide pre-packaged goods.
Cheap phones, laptops, and TVs are everywhere. A 10-fold gain in
Internet speed by mid-decade, along with speech recognition and
language translation software have eliminated the mouse and
keyboard allowing people to simply talk to their machines. Now
anyone, whether from developed or developing countries, can put
their idea on the Net and become an entrepreneur.
Can this "magical future" happen so fast? For one who
experienced the Great Depression; World War II; Korean War;
economic boom of the '50s; Woodstock; fall of the Berlin wall;
collapse of Communism; the PC; cell phones; and Internet – this
timeline seems reasonable.
Next week: The 2020s – artificial intelligence permeates life;
quantum computers enable huge healthcare breakthroughs;
understanding consciousness opens the door for super robots.
This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments
always welcome.
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