Robots could gain human consciousness by 2030, futurists predict

By Dick Pelletier

     "Ever since Bradley the household robot received his level-4 upgrade, he has been difficult to get along with. Bradley now has a conscience and although he is still eager to keep the house spotless, maintain security, and run errands; he wants more 'alone time', and he recently joined a robots rights group." The family wonders what’s next – vacations; sick leave; going on dates?

     Although this scenario may sound like fiction, it could depict a time when robots, programmed with human consciousness, will want to be treated more like us.

     But before researchers can instill consciousness into robots, they must first define and understand this baffling human trait. Scientists are learning volumes about the brain – how it makes split-second decisions, how it learns from the past, and how it converts light into visual scenes. But so far, nobody can say exactly what consciousness is.

     For some, deciphering the electrical pulses that travel through our brains is only half the story. The other part, more philosophical and complex, is how that brain activity translates into a person’s self-awareness and perception of the world around them.

     Stanford neuroscientist Bill Newsome has spent twenty years studying how neurons encode information and how they use it to make decisions about the world. He is obsessed with understanding how consciousness arises from brain function, and feels the best way to solve that mystery is to implant an electrode into his own brain to observe how electric currents change his perception of the world.

     It's not certain that Newsome will get approval for such a radical undertaking, but if he does, his experiment won’t be in the interest of curing a disease or becoming a human machine. He’s hoping to do something broader: unravel the mystery of consciousness.

     Positive-thinkers believe that Newsome's work, along with efforts such as Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s project to create a map of the brain, HHMI's Janelia Farm research to identify thoughts at the moment of creation, and the IBM-Swiss undertaking to reverse-engineer the human brain, could, by as early as 2020, answer two of the most profound questions in science: can the brain understand itself, and what is "self?"

     With a better understanding of consciousness arising from these research projects, futurists Hans Moravec, Ray Kurzweil, and others believe that by late 2020s or early 2030s, technologists could build feelings and emotions into robots. In a report, The World in 2030, futurologist Ray Hammond predicts that "In the 2030s, robots will surpass the intellectual capacity of humans and become a conscious species."

     Should we fear our clever creations? Kurzweil says there's little need for alarm. By the time robots surpass humans in brainpower, cutting-edge neural science in late 2020s and early 2030s will enable us to interface with these silicon wonders and share their intelligence. J. Storrs Hall, in his book Beyond AI, agrees that there is no risk. "By connecting our brains with tomorrow's superintelligent robots," Storrs says, "Humans will always stay a step ahead of their machines."

     Clearly, developing conscious robots poses unknown, possibly even dangerous consequences; but positive futurists see this as a natural evolutionary step as we edge closer into this "magical future."

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.