Driverless cars everywhere by 2020, pilotless air-cars in skies by 2030

By Dick Pelletier

     In the sci-fi movie Minority Report cars drive themselves while maneuvering through traffic on roads and in the sky. Though the film represents a more distant future, safe and affordable driverless cars could be on roads everywhere by 2020, and self-driving/flying air-cars by 2030.

     Scientists are now developing next generation driverless cars that understand and react to the world around them. These “smart” vehicles will be tested in a November, 2007 competition sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

     Competing cars will not only be driven entirely by computers, but will be able to operate in a simulated city environment. Stanford University’s Dr. Sebastian Thrun explains the DARPA challenge; “Driverless cars must be able to maneuver through busy streets and intersections, recognize other cars, and interact safely when they meet – all without human help.”

     “Today’s driverless cars can go about 100 miles before human assistance becomes necessary,” Thrun says, “by 2010 this will increase to 1,000 miles, by 2020 a million miles; and by the 2030s, driverless cars will surpass human drivers in both safety and reliability.”

     Driverless vehicles promise huge benefits. The Department of Transportation projects 500 million cars worldwide by 2010 with unbearable congestion everywhere. Self-driving cars always maintain proper distances at maximum speeds; and this optimizes road capacity. By 2020, we’ll say goodbye to gridlock, road rage, and most traffic deaths.

     Wright Brothers rival Glenn Curtiss was the first to design a realistic flying car in 1937. It would fly at 112 mph and drive at 56 mph. Today, the following companies are rushing to develop their idea of the perfect air-car:

• StrongMobile Magic Dragon boasts an automobile-type fuselage and suspension system. This vehicle is aimed at business travelers.

• LaBiche Aerospace FSC-1 can park in garages and tight spaces. Developers hope to provide “door-to-door” travel, but safety concerns require a parachute with the system.

• Haynes Aero Skyblazer uses a turbofan engine to provide air thrust and generate electricity that powers the motor. It flies at 400 mph with a range of 830 miles.

• Moller Skycar is a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft that can only fly from airports and heliports. Future plans include taking off and landing at parking lots and private properties.

• X-Hawk, another VTOL aircraft operates like a helicopter but without exposed rotors which make helicopters dangerous. It’s expected to arrive by 2010, but costs a whopping $3 million.

• Transition, developed by MIT alums, allows drivers to enfold or extend the wings by pushing a button in the cockpit. Priced at $148,000, sales could begin as early as 2009.

     Today’s flying cars are little more than an elaborate engineer’s dream, but by 2030 experts believe that this technology will mature, and large numbers of self-driving/flying air-cars will be crowding the skies. This will create the need for a futuristic air traffic control system that can guarantee human safety 100 percent.

     Will this “magical future” happen? Former NASA director Dennis Bushnell believes that “computerized driving systems will impact with society like cars did to the horse and buggy.” Driverless cars will be commonplace by 2020, and self-flying air-cars by 2030.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.